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Public Spending, Financed With European Funds and Its Impact on the Aggregate Supply in Central and Eastern Europe
481
n
4. Results
4.1 Results for public spending with national funds
GDP
t
= (1.00) + 0.721 PS total
t
- 0.483 PS total
t-1
+ ε
(1)
The statistical analysis shows the correlation coefficients are meaningful. The coefficient of determination is close
to 0.5, which is an evidence of a stable relationship between the dependent and independent variables. The eco-
nomic analysis notes strongest impact of the total public spending by theconsolidated state budget on the aggre-
gate supply in the current quarter. In total expenditure includes such with a direct effect on the aggregate supply as
capital spending and others whose effect is achieved indirectly through the consumer spending. All different types
of expenditure will be tested separately below. The calculated correlation coefficient between GDP and the total
public spending of the previous quarter in developed countries is positive. This coefficient, calculated for Bulgaria
is negative and probably shows following:
• fluctuation of the total public spending by the consolidated state budget on the quarterly basis, confirming by
the data (each year in the fourth quarter is observed higher amount of these expenditure compared with other
quarters);
• more of the public spending immediately heads to the consumption. It confirms the characteristic of countries
in Central and Eastern Europe - like Bulgaria - with high elasticity of consumer spending on an income. By the
Source:
www.minfin.bg, Bulgaria and EU, Management of public spending, financed with EU funds, Structural and Cohesion
funds – financial implementation
Source:
www.minfin.bg, Bulgaria and EU, Management of public spending, financing with EU funds, Structural and Cohesion
funds – financial implementation